Avoid Fall for the Authoritarian Hype – Change and the Far Right Are Able to Be Stopped in Their Tracks

Nigel Farage portrays his Reform UK party as a distinct phenomenon that has burst on to the global stage, its meteoric rise an exceptional historic moment. But this week, in every one of the continent's major countries and from India and Thailand to the United States and Argentina, far-right, anti-immigrant, anti-globalization parties like his are also ahead in the public surveys.

In last Saturday’s Czech elections, the rightwing, pro-Putin populist Andrej Babiš overthrew prime minister Petr Fiala. National Rally, which has just forced the resignation of yet another France's leader, is ahead the polls for both the French presidency and the legislature. In Germany, the right-wing AfD party is currently the leading party. A Hungarian political force, Robert Fico’s pro-Russian Slovakian coalition and the Italian political group are already in power, while the Freedom party of Austria (FPÖ), the Dutch PVV and Belgian Vlaams Belang – all staunch nationalist groups – are part of an global alliance of anti-internationalists, motivated by far-right propagandists such as a well-known figure, aiming to dethrone the global legal order, diminish human rights and destroy multilateral cooperation.

Rise of Populist Nationalism

This nationalist wave reveals a recent undeniable reality that supporters of democracy overlook at our peril: an nationalist ideology – once thought toppled with the historic barrier – has replaced neoliberalism as the leading belief system of our age, giving us a world of priorities: “US priority”, “Indian focus”, “China first”, “Russian primacy”, “my tribe first” and often “exclusive group focus” regimes. It is this ethnic nationalism that helps explain why the world is now composed of 91 autocracies and only 88 democracies, and this ideology is the driver behind the violations of international human rights law not just by Russia in Ukraine but in almost every instance of global strife.

Root Causes Explained

It is important to understand the root causes, widespread globally, that have driven this new age of nationalism. It starts with a broadly shared perception that a globalisation that was open but not inclusive has been a free for all that has not been fair to all.

Over the past ten years, political figures have not only been slow to respond to the many people who feel left out and left behind, but also to the changing balance of global economic power, transitioning from a unipolar world once dominated by the US to a multi-power landscape of competing superpowers, and from a system of international law to a might-makes-right approach. The ethnic nationalism that this has provoked means free trade is giving way to trade barriers. Where market forces used to drive politics, the politics of nationalism is now driving financial choices, and already more than 100 countries are running mercantilist policies characterized by reshoring and friend-shoring and by bans on cross-border trade, foreign funding and technology transfer, lowering international cooperation to its weakest point since the post-war period.

Hope in Global Public Sentiment

But all is not lost. The situation is not fixed, and even as it solidifies we can see optimism in the pragmatism of the world's population. In a recent survey for a major foundation, of thousands of individuals in 34 countries we find a significant portion are less receptive to an divisive nationalist agenda and more willing to embrace international cooperation than many of the leaders who govern them.

Across the world there is, maybe unexpectedly, only a limited number of hardened anti-internationalists representing 16.5% of the global population (even if 25% in the United States currently) who either feel coexistence between ethnic and religious groups is unattainable or have a zero-sum mindset that if they or their country do well, it has to be at the expense of others doing badly.

But there are an additional group at the other end, whom we might call dedicated globalists, who either still see cooperation across borders through open trade as a mutually beneficial arrangement, or are what a prominent philosopher calls “locally engaged global citizens”.

The Global Majority's Stance

The vast majority of the global public are moderate in views: not narrow, inward-looking nationalists, as “US priority” ideology would suggest, or fully global citizens. They are patriotic but don’t see the world as in a never-ending struggle between the “our side” and the “them”, adversaries permanently set apart from each other in an irreconcilable gap.

Are most moderates favor a duty-free or a dutiful world? Are they willing to accept responsibilities beyond their garden gate or community boundaries? Affirmative, under certain conditions. A first group, about a fifth, will back aid efforts to alleviate hardship and are ready to act out of selflessness, supporting emergency help for disaster zones. Those we might call “good cause” multilateralists empathize of others and have faith in something larger than their own interests.

Another segment comprising 22% are practical cooperators who want to know that any public funds for international development are used effectively. And there is a third group, roughly a fifth, self-interested multilateralists, who will approve cooperation if they can see that it benefits them and their local areas, whether it be through ensuring them basic necessities or safety and stability.

Building a Cooperative Majority

Thus a clear majority can be constructed not just for humanitarian aid if money is well spent but also for international measures to deal with worldwide issues, like climate crisis and pandemic prevention, as long as this argument is presented on grounds of wise personal benefit, and if we stress the mutual advantages that flow to them and their own country. And thus for those who have long wondered whether we cooperate out of need or if we have a need to cooperate, the response is both.

And this openness to cooperate across borders shows how we can turn back the xenophobic tide: we can overcome current pessimistic, isolated and often forceful and controlling patriotic extremism that vilifies immigrants, foreigners and “others” as long as we champion a positive, outward-looking and inclusive patriotism that addresses people’s desire to belong and resonates with their immediate concerns.

Addressing Public Concerns

Although in-depth polls tell us that across the west, unauthorized entry is currently the top concern – and no one should doubt that it must promptly be brought under control – the public sentiment data also tell us that the public are even more concerned about what is happening in their personal circumstances and within their own local communities. Last month, the UK Prime Minister gave an emotional speech about how what’s positive in the nation can drive out what’s bad, doing so precisely because in most developed nations, “broken” and “deteriorating” are the words people have for years most commonly cited when asked about both our financial system and community.

But as the prime minister also pointed out, the extreme right is more interested in using complaints than ending them. Nigel Farage praised a disastrous mini-budget as “the best Conservative budget” since 1986. But he would also enact a comparable strategy – what was planned – the biggest ever cuts in government programs. Reform’s plan to cut government expenditure by a huge sum would not repair struggling areas but ravage them, turn citizen against citizen and wreck any spirit of solidarity. Under a far-right government, you will not be able to afford to be ill, impaired, needy or at-risk. Every day from now on, and in every electoral district, the party should be asked which hospital, which educational institution and which government service will be the first to be cut or shut down.

Risks and Solutions

“Faragism” is neoliberalism at its most inhumane, more harmful even than monetary policy, and vindictive far beyond austerity. What the public are indicating all over the west is that they want their governments to restore our financial systems and our communities. “The party” and its global allies should be exposed repeatedly for policies that would devastate both. And for those of us who believe our greatest achievements could be ahead of us, we can go beyond highlighting the party's contradictions by presenting a argument for a improved nation that resonates not just to visionaries, but to pragmatists, to self-interest, and to the daily kindness of the British people.