Irish Unification Referendum Should Not Become 'A Repeat of Brexit', Analysts Caution

Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.

That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate

The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.

Lack of Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Each writes two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.

"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."

Call for Broader Discussion

Westminster should join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."